Note: The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Newday Impact. Any content provided by our authors is of their opinion and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual, or anyone or anything.
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
CEO COMMENTARY
The Law of Diminishing Intent
Remarkable people do remarkable things, and remarkable organizations can achieve greatness when creating a lasting imprint on the communities in which they live and work is pursued with vigor and passion. It was not long ago that Newday Impact joined a small number of companies providing products and solutions for responsibly minded individuals and institutions. We founded Newday on this premise. But the number of new asset managers entering the ESG (“Environmental, Social, Governance”) investing space has grown significantly over the past few years, but not always with similar intentions. The acceleration of interest in responsible investing has contributed to more than $41 trillion in global assets raised as other asset managers have jumped on the “ESG” bandwagon.
We were in good company early on as most ESG asset managers sought to make a meaningful difference for clients and our world. But as new asset managers have joined the fray, the ESG investment space has been met with skepticism and criticism from a better educated public and regulators. This is for good reason. While there are many ESG and Impact investment alternatives, few are delivering competitive investment performance with real impact outcomes.
Newday impact has built a trusted and credible reputation because of the authentic nature of our work. Our relationships with our impact partners at Each Echo International and the Cousteau family, Jane Good Institute, Georgie Badiel Liberty and the Georgie Badiel Foundation, and now UNICEF and Generation Unlimited is further testament to this authenticity supported by the coveted clients whom we serve. We rely on our partners for not only the deep insights and expertise that they possess, but for their advocacy and engagement work that we pursue together. Newday also funds a portion of our company revenues to support the work that our nonprofit and NGO partners pursue.
Our collaborative work has not gone unrecognized by the financial services community. In fact, Newday rang the New York Stock Exchange closing bell at the conclusion of Climate Week in New York City on September 23rd. Not only did we have the distinct honor of ringing the closing bell for the second time in four months, but we expect to be back in the spring as we introduce our diversity equity and inclusion work.
Additionally, on September 19th, Newday launched an important partnership with Earth For All, www.earth4all.life, an important collective of leading economic thinkers, scientists, and advocates convened by The Club of Rome, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Stockholm Resilience Center, and the Norwegian Business School. Earth4All has become a platform to connect and amplify the chorus of voices that want to upgrade our economies and transform our global systems in order to support a healthier and more vibrant world. We were thrilled to have the Earth4All team led by Sandrine Dixon-Decleve and Johan Rockstrom join us for the launch of their book and the Newday Sustainable Development Equity ETF.
The listing of Newday Impact’s second exchange traded fund, the Sustainable Development Equity ETF (SDGS) follows the World Oceans Day launch of the Newday Ocean Health ETF (AHOY), recently ranked as the 2nd most impactful fund on a list of 57 other sustainable funds by Ethos ESG. The Sustainable Development Equity fund is aligned with all 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. A percentage of revenues derived from SDGS will benefit Generation Unlimited, a public/private partnership that is run as a division of UNICEF.
Over the past quarter, Newday has made significant progress in improving our investment management capabilities as a part of establishing our own significance as an institutional asset manager. We are pleased to report that Gabriel Mass joined us on September 6th as Senior Portfolio Manager. Gabe will co-manage the Newday Impact investment portfolios and ETFs with Shireen Eddleblute, Portfolio Manager and Director of ESG Research. Gabe joins us from Symphony Asset Management/Nuveen where he performed as a portfolio manager for 8 years. Gabe earned his law degree From Fordham University School of Law and his undergraduate degree from Georgetown University. He is also a chartered financial analyst and a member of the CFA Institute.
While we have made significant progress, we still have a long way to go. As previously noted, criticism has been levied against ESG asset managers for greenwashing and social washing. This skepticism is not unwarranted. Newday has emphatically stated that the exchange of common equity from one owner to another does not translate to impact. However, if investors and asset managers use both stakeholder and shareholder power, making their voices heard, advocating for change in corporate behavior, their impact can be significant. It is for this reason that Newday partners with leading voices in impact including our nonprofit partners and additional advocacy organizations like As You Sow www.asyousow.org. We expect to further expand our advocacy efforts as we bring on new partners over the next twelve months.
As we enter Q4, we are optimistic that investment performance will be better than the previous three quarters. 2022 has been challenging for our financial markets. This was the first time since 2015 that the S & P 500 and NASDAQ [1] experienced three consecutive quarterly losses since 2009. The S & P year to date was down almost 25% through quarter end. Financial markets have been rattled by geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine, high energy prices, persistent inflation, and political uncertainty both domestically and internationally. We face these issues in the midst of a waning pandemic and a planet that is seemingly under attack from climate change.
The combination of these circumstances at times can feel overwhelming. During these times, it’s sometimes easier to think about heading for the shore, but now is the time to paddle harder and stay the course. There’s too much at stake to do anything but. Sometimes the biggest battles are ones that we fight from within. In our fight for diversity/equity/inclusion, for climate action, clean water, healthy oceans, wildlife conservation, and others, we are intent on staying focused on our important work to build a better world.
There is a concept that is fairly well known in academia referred to as the “Law of Diminishing Intent”. The law states that when it comes to completing a task that seems absolutely critical at the moment, our motivation wanes at about the same rate as the significance of the task diminishes in relation to other challenges in our personal and professional lives. This is largely due to the fact that the emotion associated with the action dwindles, causing the motivation required to finish the project to fade. The thousands of young people that we’ve worked with over the years have said it best, “join the fight, make a difference, or get out of the way”.
Our clients, our employees, and our advocates have joined this movement. They do so because they believe that we all, through collaboration and hard work, can make a difference. We have a purpose, which isn’t based on falsehoods, but based on a desire and a need to make a contribution for the sake of our world. Infusing our lives and work with purpose and meaning has never been more important. It is what pulls us out of bed every morning in that we know we are here to make a difference in the world in which we live. We all believe in what we are in the process of accomplishing and we are intent on expanding our movement to transform how corporations and consumers conduct themselves in our new world.
While our pursuit in fixing a myriad of global issues is daunting, it’s not insurmountable. So we ask you to join our movement, and do the work that you and only you can do. Make informed decisions about our world. Make decisions that lead to cleaner rivers, greener trees, fossil fuels being left in the ground and out of cars instead of out on the road. Make decisions that bring diversity and fairness into the workplace, where women and minorities populate management roles for the same compensation. Make decisions that support the improvement of workplace safety records and eliminate unacceptable working conditions. And be a believer in change. Your personal financial decisions can have a more meaningful impact on the world that extends well beyond financial returns.
Gratefully,
Doug Heske
CEO, Newday Impact
IMPACT COMMENTARY
Where Are All the Women in Finance?
Citywire recently came out with its 7th annual Alpha Female Report 2022 and found that there has been essentially little to no progress towards gender parity in fund management over the past 12 months. The report showed that of the 17,500 individual portfolio managers in their database worldwide, only 12% were women, slightly increasing from last year’s 11.8%. Over the course of their seven years of reporting this figure, the number of female managers has only risen by 1.7%, as the chart depicts below.
Women comprise 51% of the population and, over the last 50 years, have added $2 trillion to the U.S. economy by increasing their participation in the paid labor force. Over that same timeframe, women have become the breadwinners of their families, an increase of 166%, and today are the primary financial provider to 40% of all U.S. households with children. Yet their participation in leadership roles has barely moved the needle.
How can this be when women continue to outnumber men in attaining college degrees and have reached gender parity in the college-educated labor force? If you watch the likes of CNBC and Bloomberg regularly showcasing female representation of asset managers and executives, you would assume this report must be flawed. However, the reality is that they are showing us diversity where diversity does not actually exist. Though the percentage of men and women entering the field of finance and the banking industry is roughly equal, women now outnumber men (52% vs. 48%). Still, they are significantly underrepresented in senior-level positions and leadership roles, according to a research report done by McKinsey. The report showed that white women accounted for only 23% of executives, with only 4% being women of color. In fact, only 6% of the Chief Investment Officers of the largest institutional U.S. money managers are women, only 6% of senior leaders in private equity are women, 4% in real estate, and 3% in hedge funds. However, a promising study by Deloitte in 2021 shows a 4% increase in female leadership roles in the financial industry over the next eight years. But that’s not enough!
The business case for gender diversity is overwhelming as study after study shows that women directors in a company play a significant role in a firm’s profitability and sustainability performance. Citywide did a risk/return analysis over the past three years showing that gender-mixed portfolio management teams work best and perform better from a total return per unit of risk standpoint versus funds managed by just one manager. “For every unit of risk, a mixed team took, 1.07% in returns was generated, which compares with solo male managers’ return of 0.86% and solo female managers’ return of 0.8%.”
So, where are all the women in finance? Despite women leaving the workforce during the pandemic to care for family or health-related concerns, women’s enrollment in MBA degrees rose to a historical record in 2021. The Forté Foundation, a non-profit consortium formed in 2001, looked at why women are underrepresented in top business schools compared with medical or law schools as less than 28% of MBA students were women, in contrast to women making up 33% of doctors and 35% of lawyers in the U.S. More than half of business schools now report that 40% or more women are enrolled in MBA programs, but the number of people studying finance and business tends to skew towards men.
So, what do we need to do to get more women into finance? As one portfolio manager put it, “if you’re only selecting from 50% of the population, how are you going to select the best people? It’s not statistically possible.” Organizations like Girls Who Inve$t, a non-profit organization dedicated to increasing the number of women in portfolio management and executive leadership in the asset management industry, has a goal of 30% of the world’s investable capital to be managed by women by 2030. Another non-profit called The Diversity Project is a cross-company initiative championing a more inclusive culture within the Savings and Investment profession has also set a target of 30% female fund managers and a halving of the asset management industry’s gender pay gap by 2030.
However, like our climate goals, we need to do something now, or none of this will happen. So how do we create change? We start by creating interest in the subject with our youth and supporting women-focused organizations to educate, inspire, and empower girls to pursue finance degrees and careers. We, as women, need to serve as constant mentors to guide, lift and encourage one another. We must pressure companies to end the gender pay gap, create a more inclusive culture, and look to more women for leadership roles. As Mahatma Gandhi once said, “A sign of a good leader is not how many followers you have, but how many leaders you create.” We at Newday need to be the female leaders that create more female leaders in finance.
GLOBAL EQUITY COMMENTARY
Written by: Newday Investment Team
September was a bearish month for all asset classes. Equities, bonds, and commodities all fell contemporaneously and foreign currencies depreciated against the US dollar. Volatility rose along with interest rates. The main drivers of the selloff were increased central bank hawkishness, led by the Federal Reserve, as well as the effects of the Ukraine war and energy shortages in Europe. The new UK fiscal package also jolted markets toward the end of the month. September is typically a bad month for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling 1% on average, although this September was the worst monthly decline since the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020). The US dollar continued to appreciate, reaching the highest level since early 2002. Bond yields climbed, with the 10yr Treasury briefly touching 4%, the highest level since 2008. The yield curve continued to reprice Fed policy, with the Fed Funds rate now expected to peak at roughly 4.4% in Q1 2023. Within the equity market, defensive sectors outperformed (healthcare, consumer staples) along with financials while rate-exposed (real estate, utilities) and cyclical (tech, energy) sectors underperformed. Emerging market equities also underperformed.
Our portfolios remain defensively positioned, although we are looking for an opportunity to turn more pro-cyclical as visibility increases on the trajectory of inflation and the peak Fed Funds rate as well as the energy situation in Europe. While the probability for a US recession has increased, we are cognizant of the fact that the equity market typically bottoms well in advance of the economic data and seasonality tends to favor the end of the year, with November and December (as well as April) historically being the best performing months for stocks.
We launched our Sustainable Development Goals ETF (SDGS) in September, and are excited about how we have set up the portfolio. We have added some new companies that we believe are accomplishing great things from an ESG standpoint and that we feel look attractive from a macro and fundamental perspective. Amongst the new additions are LVMH (1.96%), JNJ (1.56%), and AVY(1.91%). LVMH has implemented an impressive environmental performance roadmap for the coming 3, 6, and 10 years focused on four pillars: 1) protecting biodiversity, 2) fighting climate change, 3) promoting a circular economy, and 4) transparency. JNJ continues to make progress on its Health for Humanity 2025 Goals focused on three areas: 1) global health equity, 2) employee empowerment, and 3) advancing environmental health. Avery Dennison’s ESG program is based on eight goals set in 2015 with a 10-year timeframe and three goals set in 2021 to be met by 2030, and the company has already exceeded its 2025 goal for reducing GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions. We believe all three stocks are compelling based on our macro cycle, free cash flow (defined as the amount of cash generated each year that is free and clear of all internal or external obligations), and earnings growth analysis.
We are continually re-evaluating our portfolios both in terms of ESG impact and financial returns. We look forward to providing updates on our portfolios as we incorporate new ideas based on our research process and the evolving global outlook.
S&P 500 sector performance, sorted by trailing 1mo return (Source: Fidelity)
Disclosures: This commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any product or service. Unless otherwise stated, all information and opinion contained in this publication were produced by Newday Funds, Inc. (“Newday Impact”) and other sources believed by Newday Impact to be accurate and reliable. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications.
Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing money when you invest in securities. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Newday Funds, Inc. is a subsidiary of Newday Financial Technologies, Inc. and is an SEC registered investment adviser.
Newday Financial Technologies, Inc. | www.newdayimpact.com
COUNTRY GOVERNANCE RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Ukraine counteroffensives gather pace
Russian forces entered the seventh month of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine facing setbacks on several fronts. Ukraine launched a surprise attack around the north-eastern Kharkiv region while the focus of Russia’s defenses had been on a long-telegraphed counter-offensive in the south around Kherson. Ukraine’s lightning advance was described as a rout with pictures of destroyed and abandoned Russian equipment littering the area in scenes reminiscent of Russia’s earlier withdraw from northern Ukraine following their failed attempt to capture Kyiv. The sudden defeat prompted criticism of the war effort from pro-Kremlin voices, and in response Putin announced a partial mobilization that he had long avoided with the aim of enlisting at least 300,000 new conscripts. The announcement led to a flood of Russian men fleeing to any country that remained open to them. Putin also brought forward a hastily planned referendum to annex the four territories in Ukraine that his troops partially occupy. Russia heralded the supposed return of its historical lands in an elaborate Kremlin ceremony where Putin cast the conflict as not one with just Ukraine but the wider Western world. The takeover was internationally condemned as an illegal sham, and Kyiv and its supporters said they would redouble their efforts to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Implications: Underlining the shambolic nature of the purported annexation, the Kremlin spokesperson was unable to say what the borders would be of their new territories. With Ukraine reported to be making recent gains in the south, Russian forces could face further collapses. The Kremlin reaction to losing territory they have just promised to defend as part of Russia will be something to watch with the possibility of more nuclear brinkmanship being of particular concern.
Liz Truss off to a rocky start as Prime Minister
It has been a tumultuous start for the new government of Prime Minister Liz Truss. In one of the first big acts of her administration, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng at the end of September presented their Growth Plan 2022. The package aims to bring trend GDP growth up to 2.5% in the medium-term through tax cuts and supply side reforms. Also included are temporary caps on energy prices for individuals and businesses to contain the fallout from an energy crisis emanating from Russia’s war on Ukraine. Markets reacted negatively to the announced fiscal stimulus and lack of details on how it would be paid for. The prospect of new government debt to fund the program sent bond yields sharply higher, and the volatility exposed cracks in the financial system that risked a wider systemic crisis. In order to stave off an imminent pension fund crisis, the BOE stepped in to buy long-dated UK government bonds “on whatever scale is necessary” to restore market functioning. The intervention had the desired effect with yields on thirty-year gilts falling 100 basis points (unit of measure for percentages in the bond market) – their biggest-ever one-day drop. However, the damage to the Truss government may already be done. Recent polling has the opposition Labor Party with a lead of 33 points, and there are already questions whether Truss will last until elections expected in 2024.
Implications: Acknowledging that his fiscal plans had “caused a little turbulence,” Kwarteng announced they would be scrapping the planned elimination of the 45 per cent top tax rate. The proposed tax cut for high earners had been a small part of the overall cost but was a flashpoint for critics concerned about the package’s impact on income inequality. Kwarteng has also promised to produce new forecasts and a debt plan including an assessment by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility by November 23.
Italy elects a far-right government
Giorgia Meloni is poised to become Italy’s first female prime minister after her far-right Brothers of Italy party was the largest vote getter in the September 25th election with 26 per cent of the popular vote. Together with her two coalition partners, the League led by Matteo Salvini and Forza Italia under Silvio Berlusconi, they garnered 44 per cent of the vote, enough for a comfortable parliamentary majority but short of the two-thirds majority required to change the constitution. Meloni’s rise to power has caused concern given her party’s neo-fascist roots in the Italian Social Movement (MSI), which was founded after the second world war by Mussolini loyalists. Her party won just 4 per cent of the vote in the 2018 general election, and she stayed in the opposition party during the tenure of Mario Draghi. To broaden her appeal, she toned down her hardline rhetoric and portrayed herself as a pragmatic, mainstream conservative. In contrast to her coalition partners, who have both spoken admiringly about Putin, she also pledged to continue Italy’s support for Ukraine. With a debt of over 150 percent of GDP and a desire for continued EU funding, Meloni will be constrained from any radical policy moves. Draghi negotiated a €200bn EU-funded pandemic recovery program with upcoming disbursements contingent on continuing structural reforms. The EU has already said there would be no renegotiation of those agreements. The ECB’s new bond-buying program will also come with strings attached.
Implications: The ascension of a far-right party to power in Italy is part of a trend of electoral successes throughout Europe for parties running on anti-immigrant and nationalist platforms. Also, this month the Sweden Democrats, a party formerly shunned because of its founding by right-wing extremists and neo-Nazis, received the second highest number votes in parliamentary elections in the northern European country.